Mogadishu, Somalia — The Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA), through the Multi-National Climate Disaster Risk Financing Project (CDRF–ADRiFi Project – Somalia), is supporting the development of a practical Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) System for Climate Risks in Somalia.

The initiative aims to strengthen climate risk knowledge, early warning, anticipatory action, and institutional decision-making. Somalia faces recurrent climate-related hazards, including drought, riverine and flash flooding, extreme heat, water scarcity, and rainfall variability, which significantly affect communities, livelihoods, food security, infrastructure, public services, and the wider economy.

From Forecasts to Action

Impact-Based Forecasting combines hazard forecasts with information on exposure, vulnerability, coping capacity, and historical impacts. This approach helps decisionmakers understand what may happen, where impacts may occur, who and what may be affected, the potential severity, and which early actions should be considered.

The initial prototype will focus on drought and flood, using available data and existing forecasting and early warning products. The assignment will develop hazard-to-impact matrices, risk levels, thresholds and triggers, prototype maps and bulletins, alerts, decision-support tools, and communication products, including Somali-language summaries.

Building National CapacityFinal TOR 02 Impact Based Forecasting System for Climate Disaster Risks CDRF ADRiFiSODMA (1)Final TOR 02 Impact Based Forecasting System for Climate Disaster Risks CDRF ADRiFiSODMA (1)

The initiative will also strengthen the capacity of SoDMA and relevant partners through practical training, technical guidance, standard operating procedures, and knowledge transfer. The final package will include a national IBF framework, prototype analytical workflows, data catalogue, user manuals, editable products, scripts and formulas, and an operational roadmap for sustainability and phased expansion.

The six-month assignment will be implemented primarily in Mogadishu, with limited testing in up to two agreed areas where feasible and secure.

Expected Outcome

The initiative is designed to help Somalia move from hazard-focused information toward practical, action-oriented forecasting, enabling institutions and partners to better anticipate climate-related impacts and support timely, evidence-based early action.

Implementing Agency: Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA)
Project: Multi-National Climate Disaster Risk Financing Project (CDRF–ADRiFi Project – Somalia)
Assignment: Impact-Based Forecasting System for Climate Risks in Somalia
Duration: Six months
Reference: SO-SODMA-ADRIFI-QCBS-02-2026

For More Information Please Download –Final TOR 02 Impact Based Forecasting System for Climate Disaster Risks CDRF ADRiFiSODMA (1)