Design and Development of a Practical Impact-Based Forecasting Framework and Prototype System

The Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA), through the Multi-National Climate Disaster Risk Financing Project (CDRF–ADRiFi Project – Somalia), invites qualified consulting firms to provide consultancy services for the design and development of a practical Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) framework and prototype system for climate-related disaster risks in Somalia.

Somalia faces recurrent climate hazards, including drought, riverine and flash flooding, extreme heat, water scarcity, and rainfall variability, with significant impacts on communities, livelihoods, food security, infrastructure, public services, and the wider economy. The assignment aims to strengthen climate-risk knowledge, early warning, anticipatory action, and evidence-based decision-making by linking hazard forecasts with exposure, vulnerability, coping capacity, and historical impact information.

Key Objectives

The consulting firm will:

– Review existing forecasting, early warning systems, data sources, and institutional arrangements.

– Develop a practical national Impact-Based Forecasting framework, initially focusing on drought and flood.

– Establish hazard-to-impact pathways, thresholds, risk levels, triggers, and recommended early actions.

– Develop prototype maps, bulletins, risk matrices, alerts, and decision-support products.

– Prepare standard operating procedures, data-governance arrangements, and communication tools.

– Demonstrate and test the prototype in up to two agreed test areas.

– Conduct technical training and provide a phased roadmap for institutionalization and scale-up.

Assignment at a Glance

• Implementing Agency: Somali Disaster Management Agency (SoDMA)
• Project: CDRF–ADRiFi Project – Somalia
• Reference: SO-SODMA-ADRIFI-QCBS-02-2026
• Selection Method: Quality- and Cost-Based Selection (QCBS)
• Contract Duration: Six months
• Duty Station: Mogadishu, Somalia, with limited travel to agreed test areas
• Working Languages: English and Somali

Expected Results

The assignment will deliver an agreed national IBF framework, hazard-to-impact matrices, prototype analytical workflows and forecasting products, SOPs, training materials, a data catalogue, user guidance, and a costed operational roadmap for sustainability and future scale-up.

The consultancy will build on existing government and partner systems and data. It is not intended to establish a fully automated national real-time forecasting platform or replace existing forecasting and early-warning systems.

Required Firm Experience

Interested firms should demonstrate at least seven years of relevant organizational experience, successful completion of at least three relevant assignments, including experience in impact-based forecasting or forecast-to-impact decision-support tools, as well as strong capabilities in GIS, data integration, vulnerability analysis, risk communication, institutional workflow design, training, and knowledge transfer.

For full details on the scope of services, deliverables, qualifications, timelines, and contract requirements, please refer to the complete Terms of Reference.

For More Information Please Download-Final TOR 03 Impact Based Forecasting System for Climate Disaster Risks CDRF ADRiFiSODMA