Background/Context
La Niña is one of several key climate drivers impacting East African weather. Unlike the El Niño event, which brought severe flood in 2023, La Niña often results in depressed rainfall in the East Africa region. Evidence suggests that in the last 30 years, the frequency of drought events in the Somalia have tripled, often resulting in human casualties and major economic damage..
Deyr 2024 season rainfall has been significantly below average, with peaks of –60% in most of Central and Southern Somalia. As anticipated by seasonal rainfall predictions and driven by new La Niña conditions, rainfed areas in Gedo, Hiiraan, Bay, Bakool, Mudug, Bari, Toghdheer, Bakool, Galguduud, Sool and in the Shabelle regions experienced nearly no rainfall in November, following a poor onset of the Deyr rainy season in October.
A significant negative biomass anomaly in most rain-fed agricultural and pastoral areas in these regions makes low productivity and failure of crops and rangeland in these areas likely. Pastoral areas in Bakool, Middle and Lower Jubbas and Gedo regions seem slightly less affected. Vegetation conditions in the North West on the contrary appear generally above average, due to abundant rainfall from June to September.
Overview of the Current Drought Condition
Many parts of Somalia are facing drought conditions following a failed Deyr 2024 rainy seasons which was characterized by depressed rains with poor spatial and temporal distributions.
The worst affected areas include Gedo, Hiiraan, Bay, Bakool, Mudug, Bari, Toghdheer, Bakool, Galguduud, and Sool regions which are currently experiencing severe water shortage for domestic as well as agricultural and pasture production. Part of the Middle-Shabelle, Lower-Shabelle, and Lower-Juba also fall in the moderate drought category. Pasture and water resources are getting depleted in most of the affected pastoral areas already leading to death and migration of livestock and communities.
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DROUGHT SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS REPORT FOR SOMALIA LAST UPDATE 2024